All For Loan

Apparently, 2009 will be for the United States a year of massive bankruptcies. Lack of liquidity and lack of objective risk management tools do not allow companies to once again produce and sell the derivatives, thereby postponing the recognition of their ineffectiveness. In this regard, the Government of the United States can go two ways:
Facilitate rapid bankruptcy of inefficient firms, and their subsequent sale and reorganization. Tools – refusal to deliberately inefficient enterprises and the devaluation of national currency. In this case, the economy retains its transparency and the “market”, as well as part of output and exports. Downside – a sharp decline in living standards, rising social tensions, and it is possible – early dismissal crisis management, reshivsheysya for such unpopular measures
Maintain individual businesses and industries by protecting them from bankruptcy subsidies. In this case, the level of income falls slightly, the country receives some inflow of investment and, in turn, can make valuable acquisitions abroad. Implications – the decline in exports, the crisis in knowledge-intensive industries and raising goskorruptsii;

Of course, none of the options can not be used in pure form – the economy of any country is too complex for that. However, the bias in one direction or another is always there. In the case of the United States the direction of this deviation is not quite clear: on the one hand Obama is very similar to the anti-crisis “Moor”, which is to hold a series of unpopular reforms and leave, but on the other hand, the new President of the U.S. team consists of professionals who actually and created the preconditions of the crisis still under Bill Clinton. To accuse these people neangazhirovannosti very difficult: the only man of the people in the whole team looks like Obama himself. By all appearances, the government will still be on the verge of supporting the company money, while the money will be printed. Implications of this decision difficult to predict. There is reason to suppose that the bottom will be reached by the end of the year and 2010 will be a year of slow growth, and there’s salt is good reason to assume that the state of crisis will last at least until 2011.

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